표 4 MS-VAR 추정결과
| Δhpt | Δit | Δhmt |
| 국면1 (정상) | 상수항 | 0.041 (0.039) | -0.015*** (0.007) | 0.253*** (0.044) |
| Δhpt−1 | 0.791*** (0.055) | 0.022** (0.010) | 0.205*** (0.075) |
| Δit−1 | -0.494* (0.294) | 0.484*** (0.059) | -2.056*** (0.286) |
| Δhmt−1 | -0.024 (0.031) | 0.001 (0.010) | 0.446*** (0.050) |
| Σii | 0.085*** (0.012) | 0.004*** (0.001) | 0.176*** (0.022) |
| 국면2 (급등) | 상수항 | 0.603*** (0.109) | -0.074*** (0.026) | 0.182*** (0.056) |
| Δhpt−1 | 0.353*** (0.077) | 0.067*** (0.009) | 0.174*** (0.035) |
| Δit−1 | -0.507 (0.469) | 0.387*** (0.053) | -0.668*** (0.204) |
| Δhmt−1 | 0.527*** (0.132) | 0.001 (0.035) | 0.376*** (0.070) |
| Σii | 0.462*** (0.104) | 0.023*** (0.002) | 0.088*** (0.019) |
| 국면3 (급락) | 상수항 | -0.735*** (0.131) | -0.041 (0.039) | 0.331*** (0.126) |
| Δhpt−1 | 0.897*** (0.085) | 0.092*** (0.027) | 0.004 (0.084) |
| Δit−1 | -1.193* (0.668) | 0.595*** (0.167) | -0.265 (0.675) |
| Δhmt−1 | 0.175 (0.190) | 0.122** (0.060) | 0.037 (0.180) |
| Σii | 0.168*** (0.054) | 0.020*** (0.007) | 0.203*** (0.070) |
주 : p<0.1,
p<0.05,
p<0.01이며, ( ) 안은 표준오차이다.