표 A-1 ARDL 모형 결과(종속변수: ln지산가격 지수)

년도	분기	계수	표준오차	t-value	지수 (exp(계수)×100)	년도	분기	계수	표준오차	t-value	지수 (exp(계수)×100)
2011	1				100.0	2017	1	0.136	0.037	3.64	114.6
	2	0.003	0.020	0.17	100.3		2	0.159	0.038	4.22	117.2
	3	-0.001	0.025	-0.03	99.9		3	0.183	0.038	4.82	120.1
	4	-0.040	0.028	-1.42	96.1		4	0.196	0.038	5.10	121.6
2012	1	-0.027	0.029	-0.95	97.3	2018	1	0.229	0.039	5.91	125.7
	2	-0.020	0.030	-0.67	98.0		2	0.240	0.039	6.14	127.1
	3	-0.039	0.030	-1.29	96.2		3	0.272	0.039	6.91	131.3
	4	-0.053	0.031	-1.72	94.9		4	0.278	0.040	7.02	132.0
2013	1	-0.049	0.031	-1.59	95.2	2019	1	0.261	0.040	6.55	129.9
	2	-0.041	0.031	-1.31	96.0		2	0.272	0.040	6.73	131.2
	3	-0.018	0.032	-0.58	98.2		3	0.307	0.041	7.55	135.9
	4	-0.015	0.032	-0.47	98.5		4	0.324	0.041	7.92	138.2
2014	1	-0.023	0.033	-0.70	97.7	2020	1	0.352	0.041	8.55	142.1
	2	-0.029	0.033	-0.88	97.1		2	0.378	0.041	9.12	145.9
	3	-0.027	0.034	-0.80	97.4		3	0.421	0.042	10.13	152.3
	4	-0.020	0.034	-0.58	98.1		4	0.465	0.042	11.09	159.2
2015	1	0.003	0.034	0.08	100.3	2021	1	0.523	0.042	12.45	168.7
	2	0.011	0.035	0.31	101.1		2	0.597	0.042	14.16	181.7
	3	0.032	0.035	0.92	103.3		3	0.665	0.042	15.67	194.5
	4	0.015	0.036	0.43	101.5		4	0.749	0.043	17.54	211.4
2016	1	0.033	0.036	0.92	103.4	2022	1	0.815	0.043	19.00	225.9
	2	0.060	0.036	1.65	106.2		2	0.899	0.043	20.76	245.6
	3	0.069	0.037	1.87	107.1		3	0.881	0.045	19.56	241.3
	4	0.104	0.037	2.81	111.0		4	0.824	0.047	17.42	228.0

주 : 1) 거래분기로 표현되어 있으나 실제로는 –1, 0, 1의 값을 가지는 시점 더미변수임.
2) ARDL, autoregressive distributed lag.